Zhao Dong: Bitcoin Market Has 4 Seasons, the Real ‘Winter’ Would Come in 2019
March 29, two famous Chinese speculators had a brilliant conversation on bitcoin investment.
Wang Feng, initiator of blockchain information portal Huoxing24 and the founder of Linekong Interactive Group, has opened up a column named “Wang Feng’s 10 Questions”. This time, he invited Zhao Dong, the prominent Chinese early bitcoin adopter, the shareholder of Bitfinex and founder of Dfund, as his guest.
Zhao Dong demonstrated his point of view in the pattern of bitcoin. He stated that, throughout history, there is a four-year cycle for bitcoin and halving mining could be the key changing point. If we say 2013 is a “summer” of bitcoin, then 2014 should be ‘autumn’ and 2015 is the ‘winter.’
He added: “the halving event occurred in 2016, it also has become a turning point of the start of the new bull market. In 2017, it reached all-time highs. If we say, 2017 is the summer of bitcoin, the autumn should come this year, and the next year would be the winter.”
Due to the regulatory risk in China, Zhaodong chose to set up his operations in Japan. When he was asked if he is planning a comeback, Zhaodong answered “Definitely, and it is probably only a matter of time. It is an irresistible trend of history and I believe China will enter the heyday within 20 years. It’s like my opinion on Bitcoin: it is a short-term bear, but long-term bull market.”
Zhao Dong pointed out that, most people are too optimistic about the future in the short-term but too pessimistic in the long-term. Bitcoin will not climb to $1 million USD tomorrow, and it may even fall below 1,000 US dollars, but in the long term, maybe 10 years, 20 years, or even 50 years, it definitely could rise up to 1 million US dollars.
Wang Feng also asked Zhao Dong about the reason of the recent bear market since January and when would the bull comeback.
“Market always has its own rules which cannot be controlled by anyone. You asked me the reason for bear market? There is no reason behind the bear. The market is not rational, It is either in an irrational process of rising, which increase bubbles, or in an irrational drop. When the market turns to bear or bull, it just because of its own rules.” said Zhao Dong.
As an early adopter of bitcoin, Zhao Dong did not have an easy path to fame and fortune with the cryptocurrencies. He lost 9, 000 BTC in a single day when his margin position on Bitfinex was forced liquidated at the beginning of 2014. Which caused him a deep depression and even contemplated suicide. However, he managed to pay back 150 million yuan debts in 2.5 years.
When asked how could picked up himself in such a bad condition, he answered “I believed bitcoin could have profound impact on the development of human history, I knew I could not quit this industry no matter how hard it is, I kept telling myself, I will survive, and I’m glad I did it .”