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Will the Big Three allow bitcoin withdrawal in March?
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It’s almost one month now since the Big Three bitcoin exchanges announced the halting of bitcoin withdrawal announced on 9th Feb. Investors have been anxiously waiting for any update from the exchange. Suspension of bitcoin withdrawal is not direct order from regulators, but more as a sign of obedience to the authority. There are several factors that might affect the decision of exchanges.
The Two sessions (3rd-13th March)
The fifth sessions of the 12th National People’s Congress (NPC) and the 12th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), also known as the “two sessions,” are expected to end on 13th March. During the “two sessions”, social order and security are the priority of all local police forces. It happened before that some p2p lending platform went broke and victims gathered in front of local government to protest. Such commotions are strictly monitored during the two sessions as it is regarded as a disgrace to local authorities.
As bitcoin demand for immediate withdrawal is mostly driven by the “ MMM Republic of Bitcoin” at the moment, the majority of speculators are happy with the price floating within exchange. If MMM loses its traction on gaining new members or bitcoin price crash, large crowd of victims may march on street.
Screenshot of MMM website
PBoC Regulation
A joke among the bitcoin circle in China is that if government is assigned to manage desert, sand will be in scarcity in two years. A good example is the housing price in China. Every time the government release some regulations like forbidding non-local residents from buying houses, people know that the housing price are protected and will not fall. It has been proved in the past two decades. After the PBoC FUD fades away, people may realize that bitcoin could well fit in the “more regulation, more protection” category.
But not everyone is just waiting for things to happen.
A shanghai-based exchange Freewillex announced that user may withdraw BTC starting from 1st March, imposing a 5 BTC daily limit and an annual cap of 10 BTC. As it’s a new exchange, the order book went nuts in a short while. But today the exchange has almost zero transaction volume.
OTC Hedging
Is there a way to withdraw bitcoin from exchange? The answer may lies in OTC hedging. As per a thread on 8btc forum, a user disclosed how he managed to get access to real coins via OTC trading. The OP had 2.1 BTC stuck in the exchanges. His original plan was to wait for a month. However, his concern kept on growing as Bitcoin inching its way to gold parity. Then he came up with a plan. First he bought 2.1 BTC via OTC trading at the price of 8211 CNY. Then he created a selling offer on the exchanges at the same price. The order was finally taken last Friday. His next move was to withdraw CNY immediately from the exchange. He was lucky to swap the stranded coins via OTC trading.
Will the Big Three allow bitcoin withdrawal this month? Probably not because the status quo is acceptable.
Learn cryptocurrency and digital assets since 2013 and co-founder of 8btc in 2014. Co-author of 2014-2015 Digital Currency Development Report(2015) and first author of Investment Guidelines To Blockchain Digital Currency (Published in June 2017 ISBN:9787300239286).
COMMENTS(20)
Its almost one month now since the Big Three bitcoin exchanges announced the halting of bitcoin withdrawal announced on 9th Feb. Investors have been anxiously waiting for any update from the exchange. Suspension of bitcoin withdrawal is not direct order from regulators, but more as a signature of obedience to the authority. There are several factors that might affect the decision of exchanges.The Two sessions (3rd-13th March)http://news.8btc.com/will-the-big-three-allow-bitcoin-withdrawal-in-march
Here is the link to the original comment thread. Or you can comment here to start a discussion. Author: 8btccom
I guess they will. You can’t run an exchange if you don’t allow your customers to withdraw their coins.They should be back in business with enhanced anti-money laundering measures.
That would allow the Chinese to sell them on US or European exchanges. They have been unable to do so for a while now and probably keep buying in the mean time. The PBoC may want to wait until the bubble goes up higher, short the price of bitcoins and then allow Chinese to withdraw them, initiating a sell-off.
The PBoC probably makes up a scarry story to let the price of bitcoin tank first..
Quote from: aso118 on March 06, 2017, 04:19:48 PM
I guess they will. You can’t run an exchange if you don’t allow your customers to withdraw their coins.They should be back in business with enhanced anti-money laundering measures.
Everybody can run an exchange and don’t allow customers to withdraw their coins! It’s just rather unlikely that you will gain new customers willing to deposit moar.As it’s unlikely that you will keep any former customers once you allow them to flee.”The Dead Three” would have been a fitting toppic. They’re done.
I would not be suprised if the coins on the big 3 were never real bitcoins , but IOU’s like paper gold.and PBOC discoverd this and stoped them.now they are done.
Quote from: numismatist on March 06, 2017, 08:07:52 PM
Everybody can run an exchange and don’t allow customers to withdraw their coins! It’s just rather unlikely that you will gain new customers willing to deposit moar.As it’s unlikely that you will keep any former customers once you allow them to flee.”The Dead Three” would have been a fitting toppic. They’re done.
“The Dead Three” – very fitting name. We should be glad that despite crippled Chinese exchanges, Bitcoin’s price is soaring right now.It showed the community that Bitcoin doesn’t need Chinese support to reach new highs. At this time I am beginning to wonder if Chinese exchanges working at full capacity will change something at all?It seems Chinese traders are existing perfectly fine without them around.
As bitcoin demand for immediate withdrawal is mostly driven by the MMM Republic of Bitcoin at the moment, the majority of speculators are happy with the price floating within exchange. If MMM loses its traction on gaining new members or bitcoin price crash, large crowd of victims may march on street.
I think the “Big Three” had their reputations built on zero cost trades, at best, and/or inflated numbers via trading bots or other automated systems. Their reputation as “Big Three” seems highly inflated.
Quote from: Slark on March 06, 2017, 11:03:16 PM
Quote from: numismatist on March 06, 2017, 08:07:52 PM
Everybody can run an exchange and don’t allow customers to withdraw their coins! It’s just rather unlikely that you will gain new customers willing to deposit moar.As it’s unlikely that you will keep any former customers once you allow them to flee.”The Dead Three” would have been a fitting toppic. They’re done.
“The Dead Three” – very fitting name. We should be glad that despite crippled Chinese exchanges, Bitcoin’s price is soaring right now.It showed the community that Bitcoin doesn’t need Chinese support to reach new highs. At this time I am beginning to wonder if Chinese exchanges working at full capacity will change something at all?It seems Chinese traders are existing perfectly fine without them around.
What do you expect the AML would include?
Quote from: cr1776 on March 06, 2017, 10:08:39 PM
I think the “Big Three” had their reputations built on zero cost trades, at best,
That. It was the exact reason of why traders from all around the world were joining Chinese exchanges. At some point it got so bad, that it basically was turned into a HFT playground. Every normal minded trader had basically no chance of surviving in such hostile market circumstances. These HFT literally squeezed out every penny from the market as they benefit from making thousands of micro profits every day. It doesn’t matter anymore when or if these exchanges will allow withdrawals again, the market doesn’t care a single bit about these exchanges anymore. It’s the western exchanges that took over the lead, and rightfully so.
Quote from: hl5460 on Today at 06:40:58 AM
But HFT traders claimed that they provide liquidity to the market.
Liquidity? Can you point me to an article of them saying that? I have been keeping a constant close eye on their order books, and at no times there was a serious amount of liquidity added to the market among all major Chinese exchanges. The only times they “added” liquidity is when they tighten the spreads, where they buy/sell into their own orders squeezing out all other traders. But as quick as they add their own orders, that quickly do they vanish too.
Quote from: 1Referee on March 07, 2017, 07:50:10 AM
Quote from: cr1776 on March 06, 2017, 10:08:39 PM
I think the “Big Three” had their reputations built on zero cost trades, at best,
That. It was the exact reason of why traders from all around the world were joining Chinese exchanges. At some point it got so bad, that it basically was turned into a HFT playground. Every normal minded trader had basically no chance of surviving in such hostile market circumstances. These HFT literally squeezed out every penny from the market as they benefit from making thousands of micro profits every day. It doesn’t matter anymore when or if these exchanges will allow withdrawals again, the market doesn’t care a single bit about these exchanges anymore. It’s the western exchanges that took over the lead, and rightfully so.
But HFT traders claimed that they provide liquidity to the market.
Quote from: 1Referee on Today at 07:17:18 AM
Quote from: hl5460 on Today at 06:40:58 AM
But HFT traders claimed that they provide liquidity to the market.
Liquidity? Can you point me to an article of them saying that? I have been keeping a constant close eye on their order books, and at no times there was a serious amount of liquidity added to the market among all major Chinese exchanges. The only times they “added” liquidity is when they tighten the spreads, where they buy/sell into their own orders squeezing out all other traders. But as quick as they add their own orders, that quickly do they vanish too.
At least the HFT traders claim sohttp://news.8btc.com/3-exits-for-chinese-bitcoin-hft-traders-with-millions-of-funds
Quote from: hl5460 on Today at 08:26:00 AM
At least the HFT traders claim sohttp://news.8btc.com/3-exits-for-chinese-bitcoin-hft-traders-with-millions-of-funds
Thanks for the link to the article. I have read the article two times, and I couldn’t find any solid arguments that justifies/supports their claim. But then again, it’s not really surprising since their supposed liquidity wasn’t visible at all. HFT traders are a parasite that are destructing everything from within. I am glad the PBOC has taken the necessary steps to put everything to a stop. It’s probably the best that happened to Bitcoin in many years.
No one is going to move anything yet.https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5y6s4v/okcoin_huobi_btcc_all_make_joint_statements/Statement released that there’s a delay…. read into that what you will.
Quote from: 1Referee on Today at 10:55:36 AM
Quote from: hl5460 on Today at 08:26:00 AM
At least the HFT traders claim sohttp://news.8btc.com/3-exits-for-chinese-bitcoin-hft-traders-with-millions-of-funds
Thanks for the link to the article. I have read the article two times, and I couldn’t find any solid arguments that justifies/supports their claim. But then again, it’s not really surprising since their supposed liquidity wasn’t visible at all. HFT traders are a parasite that are destructing everything from within. I am glad the PBOC has taken the necessary steps to put everything to a stop. It’s probably the best that happened to Bitcoin in many years.
Concurred. “market making”, “providing liquidity”, “adding depth to the market” are all just perverse catchphrases for vultures in an attempt to justify profiting from artificial volume. In a natural market, price discovery works by people deciding how much they want to buy and sell something for. But with HFT, trading algorithms can be run in such a way that it will make thousands of trades to deliberately move the market towards a predetermined price. Essentially, you can use HFT to not only profit from margin trading, but also manipulate prices in general.
Quote from: TraderTimm on Today at 02:45:44 PM
No one is going to move anything yet.https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/5y6s4v/okcoin_huobi_btcc_all_make_joint_statements/Statement released that there’s a delay…. read into that what you will.
Still no movement on withdrawals so is this the reason for the drain on the current price?
It doesn’t amaze me that they stopped withdrawals. Since their fake volume was exposed the outflow of capital was to be expected, thus their move to suspend withdrawals to slow it down and have more time to play with the money. It’s going to take time to restore their reputation, maybe a name and management changes would be a good move. It’s not a Gox level fuck up, but they’re going in the right direction.
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