Will Miners Suffer if Bitcoin Price Keep Unchanged After Halving?
According to the current bitcoin price, some mining machines have reached the shutdown price, even the major Antminer S9 is suffering a deficit. So will crypto miners suffer if bitcoin price keeps unchanged after halving?
So when the revenue of the mining machine is reduced by half, the mining machine with the electricity cost ratio of more than 50% will be shut down in theory.
According to the data of the F2pool, the mining machine with the electricity cost ratio of more than 50% is about 60W / T, that is to say, at the current price, the miner with the energy consumption ratio of more than 60W / T should be shut down after halving in theory.
The proportion of miners with energy consumption ratio of about 60W / T is about 50%. We can use the slope of computing power growth in the past three months to estimate the hashrate when halving occurs (at present, the hashrate is 95.9E, the average computing power of 180 days on December 10 is 82.06E, and the average computing power of 180 days on September 10 is 59.48E). That is to say, the hashrate when halving occurs is 82.06 x (82.06 / 59.48) * 2 = 156E.
But the replacement rate of 50% is not equal to the elimination rate. We take S9 (13T) and S17 (53t) as an example. According to the replacement rate of 50%, the elimination rate is 13 / (13 + 53) = 20%, that is, 156e x 20% = 31.2E, about 31.2 million T.
That is to say, if the price remains unchanged when bitcoin halving occurs, mining assets worth 424 x 31.2 million Chinese yuan = 13.2 billion Chinese yuan will be eliminated.
However, electric charge is not the same as the shut-down price above is calculated as 0.35 Chinese yuan. Crypto mining is a global behavior, not all electricity charges in the world are at the same price. That is to say, even if the miners reach the shut-down price after halving, it is still possible to run in another place.
For the miner, the price of each T is dynamic, each order has a certain schedule, and the value of the final transmission to the hashrate is also changing.
For the large mining farm owners, they will take over the mining machines at a lower price when the individual miners can’t hold on so as to expand their share of computing power, which is essentially the process of reducing the marginal cost of bitcoin mining market. For investors, if the institutions have the expectation of the bullish price, some miners also hold bitcoin because of the bullish mood, which will lead to the change of supply and demand in the market, and the high growth of price will offset the decrease of fiat money income caused by halving.