Uncertainty Over Bitcoin Halving
After New Year’s Day, BCH took the lead in the first shot of halving as its price rose from $195 to around $220. In the next few days, BCH showed a very strong momentum with ETC, BSV, ZEC, BTG followed. The price of Bitcoin, the most representative cryptocurrency, rose from $7300 to $9300 as well.
Google trend shows that at present, the keyword search ‘Bitcoin Halving’ has reached a four-year high in Google, second only to the search volume before bitcoin halving in 2016. By the week of January 19, the relative search volume of “Bitcoin Halving” keywords in the United States reached 37, while the average data in December last year was only 14, similar to the growth track of search volume before the last halving event.
“At present, the power of the global miners has been fully turned on. If there is no accident, the sha256s computing power of the whole network will not increase significantly in the second half of the year.”
In the face of sha256 computing power over 120E in the whole network, a Chinese miner made such a judgment. For miners, the halving means an increase in mining costs when the rise in the currency price is not clear. Data from BTC.COM shows that at present, the hashrate is 120EH/s up and down. If the price of bitcoin does not rise significantly after the halving, many miners will face great losses.
At the same time, the upgrading of mining machines will also increase the “uncertainty” caused by bitcoin halving.
The year 2020 coincides with the renewal of the mining machine. The 7nm mining machine of Bitmain has even been developed from the first generation S15 to the current S17. Whatsminer M20 has already been published, and the 7nm mining machine of Canaan and Ebang has been on the market for more than half a year. This is both an opportunity and a challenge for the mining space.
In mid-January 2020, at the live show held at Chainnode, founder of F2Pool said:
“Will the price soar after halving? If the bitcoin price doesn’t soar, the current 30-40eE mining machine represented by S9 will have to be shut down, and the hashrate will be greatly reduced. At the same time, the return cycle of mining machine will be longer.”
In the eyes of the founder of F2Pool, the last generation of mining machine Ant S9 may become the “victim” of the bitcoin halving.
Both certainty and uncertainty will become a part of the having market. As investors, observers or practitioners, actively participating in this trend is the most correct choice.