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Jiang Zhuoer: Bitcoin Bull Run after the 2020 Halving is Likely to Be the Last Bull That Can Be Clearly Predicted

The bitcoin bull run to come with the upcoming halving is likely to be the last bull that could be clearly predicted, said crypto mining pool BTC.Top’s founder Jiang Zhuoer.

The bitcoin tycoon recently took to Weibo (Twitter equivalent in China) to opine about his prediction of bitcoin’s next halving. As the date of the third bitcoin halving draws near, debates regarding when the halving effects kick in and how will it influence the price have been intensifying.

Since bitcoin’s creation in 2009, its block reward is designed to be halved every 4 years. There have been two halvings, with the first happening on November 28, 2012, and the second on July 9, 2016. The next halving event is estimated to fall on May 12 this year, during which mining rewards will get cut in half to 6.25 BTC per block.

In terms of bitcoin price performance, the two previous halvings have projected bullish momentum a year before and after the event. Bitcoin bulls strongly believe that bitcoin would also see great gains in price this time, while some others say that history may not predict the future.

In Jiang’s view, bitcoin halving this time will definitely bring in a bull market and it is likely to be the last bull run that can be clearly foreseen on the grounds that

  1. Demographic dividend of Bitcoin will see a sharp decrease as people who should know about bitcoin will have already known it after the halving;
  2. The supply of additional bitcoin entering the market will be decreased by 50% after the halving;
  3. Bitcoin’s market share continues to decline, and the crypto market will become similar to assets like real estate and US stocks.

While some argued that once there are legal and convenient channels provided for the average people in the country, bitcoin will have a huge potential investor base, and said that it is still a long way for bitcoin to get close to traditional assets like stocks.

No doubt, debates regarding bitcoin halving will continue as the cryptocurrency is mysterious and hard to predict.

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