Is it Reasonable to Buy Crypto Mining Machines Before the Upcoming Bitcoin Halving?
The article analyzes whether it is reasonable to buy mining machines before the upcoming bitcoin halving from the perspective of ordinary individual investors.
The essence of the crypto miner is the call option of bitcoin. The reduction of output by halving will lead to the reduction of market supply, the original balance of supply and demand will be broken, which bullish the currency price. If you bullish bitcoin for a long time, it is a good choice to participate in crypto mining.
In the future, the price of the miner will rise or fall? How to choose the miner before halving?
Before 2018, due to the capacity limitation, the financial attribute of the miner is stronger, and the price will be less related to its manufacturing cost, which is mainly based on the financial attribute of the miner. Generally, investors can get the money back after buying the miner for about 10 months. The price of mining machine synchronously rises with the price of the cryptocurrency. In the bull market in 2017, the Antminer S9 sold more than 30000 Chinese yuan; By the end of 2018, the Antminer S9 sold only a few hundred Chinse yuan, which was far lower than the manufacturing cost.
The effect of halving will certainly have an impact on the price of the mining machine, but the impact on different mining machines varies. The price of the high-performance miner (low energy efficiency ratio, high computing power) is relatively less affected, while the impact of halving effect on low-performance miner is greater, and may even lead to the shutdown of many low-performance miners. If the currency price remains unchanged, the price of the mining machine will also dump sharply.
Therefore, as an ordinary individual investor, if you choose to buy a miner before halving, you should choose a high-performance miner. In this way, even if the rise of the currency price is not large after halving, the miner will not have to be shut down. If the price of the currency pumps more than doubles, not only the mining revenue will increase, but also the price of the mining machine will rise.
In the next 1-2 years, will there be any mining disasters?
Antminer S9 has completed the migration from individuals to large investors. The new miner’s shutdown price is very low, and the halving coincides with the wet season in time. As the price of electricity will drop, so the possibility of large-scale mining disaster is not very likely. It is more likely that the new and old mining machines will gradually complete the “metabolism”, and the old mining machines will be eliminated by the high-performance mining machines with low energy efficiency ratio.
At present, the price of the miner is close to the manufacturing cost of the miner. For the miner with high efficiency, it can well resist the impact of halving.
It is more reasonable to consider participating in mining when the market situation is clearer after halving. Although this may miss the potential benefits brought by the pump of the currency price, it avoids the potential risk that the insufficient pump of the currency price or even dump after the halving.