Hashrate May Reach 100E By 2018, Bitmain Taking 80% Market Share
How many miners are actually in operation? A rough estimate by semiconductor professionals claims that around 1.5 million units are currently in operation. The hashrate is expected to reach 100E by the end of this year. The report also says the Bitmain is taking all available capacity of TSMC at the moment.
How many machines are online now?
Currently, the total network hashrate is around 19.3EH / S, which is equivalent to 1.5 million S9 Ant miners (13TH / s ). From October 2017 to January 2018, around 900,000 units of S9 are put online.
In accordance with data from btc.com, the hashrate of the entire network is 19.3EH / S as of January 24, 2018, which means the equivalent of 1.43 million units of S9 miner.
Then we can estimate the monthly shipments of Bitmain in the last few months. In October 2017, the total hashrate is 8EH/S, which is expected to reach 20EH/S. That’s 12EH/S or 890,000 units of S9 equivalent in the last 4 months. If the market share of Bitmain is 80 percent, that means Bitmain delivered 710,000 units of S9 miner, a monthly average of 177,500 (from October 2017 to February 2018)
Looking further, the hashrate as of 29 December 2017 was 2.27EH/s and 13.82 EH/S as of 1 January 2018. That means an increase of 850,000 units of S9 equivalent in 2017. Taking 80% market share, Bitmain is estimated to deliver 57,000 units every month in 2017.
According to an analyst called James Wang, Bitmain purchases 10,000 pieces of 16nm wafers a month from TSMC, and in the new quarter it will reach 20,000 pieces. Sources also revealed that all production capacity of TSMC now will be directed to meet Bitmain’s demand.
Bloomberg said that 90% of the world’s crypto mining ASICs are manufactured by TSMC. As the market is expecting iPhone X shipments to slow down and the demand for smartphones in China will recede, the crypto mining chips may account for as much as 10% of TSMC’s revenue share in 2018.
100EH/S By the end of 2018
According to industry estimates, hashrate of the entire network will reach 100EH / S by the end of 2018. In other words, it is equal to 6 million units of Bitmain S9, or 300,000 pieces of 10nm or 12nm wafer. This will bring a considerable revenue to the semiconductor foundry, packaging and testing industry in 2018.
One piece of 10nm / 12nm wafer is around $ 10,000. Taking yield, loss, NRE factors into account, crypto mining ASIC is expected to contribute 4-5 billion USD to the wafer market. Because foundries that are capable of processing 16nm and below are quite limited and they often put eggs in different baskets so competition for production capacity is inevitable.