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Halving May Not Have Been Priced In

The past five Aprils have always been good for Bitcoin and have yielded positive Q2 returns, data from a research and metrics provider has shown thus suggesting that the coming halving may spring surprises.

Messari Research, which has been seeking to answer the question of whether the upcoming halving could be the catalyst for the next Bitcoin bull run, presents Q2 of past recent years as always been strong going by their fourth month’s performance: +8.0% (2016), +28.0% (2017), +33.5% (2018), +30.7% (2019) and +34.6% (2020).

If this is anything to go by, especially in a Bitcoin block reward halving year, this outlook could contradict the held view that the value of assets such as Bitcoin is subjective and dependent on individual interpretation of what it should be worth thus could have been priced in. Rather, it would support the assumption that market prices, which are always correct, could underestimate the future value of an asset hence some changes may occur.

Clearly, it is yet to be seen what will happen. However, the jump in the price of Bitcoin from the $7,500 mark to $9,400 this week has heightened the debate over whether the top cryptocurrency’s price will see a spike as a result of the supply-cutting-into-two process or not as the Bitcoin halving event draws nearer for May 12. Several predictions have been thrown around as a result while others maintain the belief that nothing is likely to change as the rise in the value has been supposedly priced in.

Bitcoin educator and developer, Jimmy Song, believes nothing has been priced in. Rather, he argues that “things are only anticipated, correctly or incorrectly. As accurate anticipation is difficult, prices generally do not stay static.”

But the 2020 halving is expected to be different – especially for miners whose margins are minimal – if a price rise is not realised. TradeBlock expects Bitcoin price to rise above estimated mining breakeven levels of around $7,300 post-halving if it follows similar patterns with the prior two halvings. Anything different from this could see many marginal miners not make it after this year’s halving unless Bitcoin exchange rate rises significantly.

There would be a decrease in the number of miners – since they’ll only be receiving half as much of their current profits even when the block reward is cut in half – if the price does not rise though others share that halving cutting revenue of miners or forcing some of them out will not have an impact on the price of Bitcoin.

Another perspective to the general market overview with regards to whether the expected rise has been priced in or not and what could be its impact is the belief in the news effect of the halving event. Proponents of this view share that the publicity that goes with Bitcoin halving is a sound reminder to the public of the cryptocurrency’s existence and could serve a hype purpose.

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