Financial Crisis Doubtful, Crypto May Not Help
Thoughts of running to cryptos in the event of a global financial crisis may not pan out if views coming from the industry are anything to go by.
Though there are concerns that the “risk of an outright recession has clearly risen” in Europe, BitMex charts in its “Anatomy Of The Next Global Financial Crisis report” identify there’s a problem but they do not suggest their authors are “necessarily right on the precipice of a major crisis.” Rather, they argue that a repeat of the 2008 crisis wherein retail banking deposits and payment systems are under threat is unlikely. They claim the area where fragility in the financial system could be most significant is in corporate debt investment funds and unconventional debt investment vehicles that are “encouraged by deceptively low volatility and low return environment.”
The research also notes that even if a crisis happens – possibly in several years, it may not have a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin. This view tends to address talks of how the top cryptocurrency would perform if a financial crisis should come. Though it was introduced after the 2008 crisis, it is unclear how Bitcoin would respond in such a global market situation.
Speaking on his recent positions on cryptocurrencies and the state of U.S. markets, Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, does not think there is a recession in the global economy even though a big inventory adjustment and de-stocking may have taken place. He says even if it would be, it will take the stock market a long way to go down. On the part of cryptocurrencies, Lee hinted that seven of the 10 things that were headwinds in crypto last year are becoming tailwinds this year, a positive for the industry – one of them being the feasibility of the U.S. SEC approving a Bitcoin ETF.
Lee also notes that though Bitcoin price being based on network value and not priced to book makes predicting its value target a bit tough, he maintains that its price is “a lot higher than where it is right now.” His claim could be linked to a recent JPMorgan Chase analysis which states that the cost of producing a Bitcoin now costs $4060 on average yet the market value for one currently stands at ~$3580 (at press time). While the analysis suggests that it now costs more to make Bitcoin than its real worth – about 16% loss, it also adds that low-cost Chinese miners are able to pay much less (estimated ~$2,400 per Bitcoin) by leveraging direct power purchasing agreements with electricity generators.
Lee had established a similar view with the JPMorgan analysis last July only that he hinted Bitcoin price (~$6500 at the time) ought to rise to double its mining cost before the end of 2018.