CSDN Founder: 5 Signs To Observe Prior To Burst of Blockchain Bubble
Jiang Tao, Founder and Chairman of CSDN, is a senior developer and serial entrepreneur with many years of experience. Founded in 1999, CSDN is the biggest community for developers in China. CSDN (after de-duplication) has 23 million registrants and 10 million active users. CSDN is also an investor of OKcoin. In a meetup held in Beijing on 10 March, he shared his thoughts and visions on the blockchain business. At the end of the speech, he spoke of “blockchain bubble” and 5 signs to observe prior to its burst.
Finally, since everyone is asking what is going on and what will happen next. I could make a prediction based on some foreign forecasts. There are five signs to observe before the bubble burst.
Sign 1: Massive coverage by mainstream media (It’s happening now).
Sign 2: Mainstream institutional funds getting on board.
It hasn’t happened yet. VCs have started investing in cryptos, but mainstream funds haven’t yet. They are actually investing in the stock market but they may enter the crypto market in 2018 and 2019. As early players might get huge profits and the late comers may just catch up with the bubble but being a by-stander means lagging behind. So this is a very struggling stage.
Sign 3: Market cap reach 5 trillion and 10 trillion.
Market cap of the previous round of Internet bubble reached 3.5 trillion USD. Then this round of bubble should be between 5 trillion and 10 trillion. The current market cap is 400 billion US dollars. There could be 10 times to 20 times growth, but then It will drop 90%.
Sign 4: Traditional large companies roll out private and centralized blockchain projects.
Now, companies that own massive users and resources have not yet moved. They haven’t issued tokens. If these companies join the play in 2018 and 2019…
Sign 5: The blockchain project begins to have a large number of real users.
When blockchain projects are capable of supporting users on a large scale, that is when many projects will fail. Falling of the first star project will cause an avalanche. However, when it happens is unknown. It could be this year, next year or the year after. No one knows.
Therefore, it is the best time and the worst time as well. Everyone must be psychologically prepared.
Despite the “bubble” statement, Jiang is actually optimistic about the development of blockchain. When talking about the new economy that the blockchain will bring, Jiang Tao pointed out that the future economy would be based upon a trinity structure. In such a model, the issuing of coins, digital currency, and the tokens will work together to form a new balance. Values of the physical world will eventually be put on blockchain, achieving high-speed circulation and efficient operation in the Internet of values.