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Chinese factors behind the 14 billion marketcap of Bitcoin
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The $14 billion marketcap of Bitcoin is a good story for mainstream media. And the Chinese media did release stories as expected. But is the market really driven by Chinese capital market demand or it is just another bubble? You will see the real driving force at the end of this story.
Mainstream media coverage
The market capital of Bitcoin in Thursday broke $13 billion, previous record high achieved in December 2013, and heading for 14 billion today.
“It looks familiar, just like 3 years ago.”
If you are a long term hoarder of Bitcoin, then the price chart will certainly reminds you of a familiar picture in 2013.
Bitcoin market cap chart by Blockchain.info
All major financial medias in China release similar report.
WSJ China: Back to madness: Bitcoin break through 900 USD and up 14% in 3 days
Caixin :released a video titled: Bitcoin rose to record high in 34 months with most transaction happened in China
The caption says:
While stock traders are waiting to see the Dow Jones to break 20,000, Bitcoin has surged to 800 USD on 21st Dec, first ever since Feb 2014.
The report attributes the price surge to the change of global political and economic system, ventures capital seeking for safe-haven assets.
FT China: Bitcoin price surge and chased by capitals
Tencent: Bitcoin price breached 800 USD in 3 years
“Market cap of bitcoin is over 13 billion USD Wednesday and surpass that of Twitter”
Sina: All Bitcoin in existence worth $14 billion, a record high in history
Sina report of Bitcoin’s record high price
Bitcoin has just breached its all-time high ‘market cap’ level. Many insiders believe that it has to do with the continuous depreciation of RMB, which dropped around 7% against USD.
The report also mentions two features that attract those who seek evasion of a tightening capital control in China: fast transfer across the world and the anonymity.
It’s important to note that these media take a neutral stand since Bitcoin is still defined as a “commodity” as per the joint notice released by 4 regulatory authorities in 2013. But the comments from the readers are mostly negative. Some comments:
Hanq8973:
It is a scam invented by Americans. Keep your eyes open!
Lindashaoye:
Never trust this. The transaction are controlled by the exchange and it’s pumped by Chinese. No one is really using it as a currency. You may trade them in exchange but you can never withdraw the virtual stuff. The exchange could manipulate it at will.
Yang_weiqi:
It’s the Chinese that pump the price. Part of real estate funds are injected into Bitcoin and another function of bitcoin is to transfer money. Bitcoin is perfect for money laundering.
Weibo is the twitter counterpart in China with 282 million monthly active user in Q2 2016, second only to Wechat in terms of socializing network.
The Sina Technology account has around 12 million followers and usually The weibo has been shared 43 times at press time. From the number of RTs and comments, the bitcoin rally is hardly the center of public attention. Usually over 1,000 RTs on weibo may become a hot topic of the day. So the record-breaking news might only stir up excitement for people within the ecosystem.
This is supported by the search trending on baidu, aniajk posted his conclusion on 8btc forum:
Baidu search trending reveals no booming of bitoin
As per an search engine analysis, “bitcoin” or “比特币” on baidu trending sees no significant increase, compared to that in 2013.
“It’s obvious that bitcoin failed to attract public attention again. Without extensive public awareness, it might be safe to say that we are no seeing a bubble. “
Insider’s view
There is nothing new from the mainstream coverage. But cryptocurrency veterans offer a different perspective.
Rookie Index
The “Rookie index” of biqushi reflects the flow of capital into the cryptocurrency market, data of which comes from weibo, qq group and Wechat etc. Realtime analysis will be preformed and coverted into 3 indicators: Emotion Index, Longshort index and Rookie index. These factors would help users to better judge the market trending. Below is the “Rookie Index” from July 2015 to December 2016:
As Pan Guoli, CEO of Biqushi, points out:
According the Rookie Index, the number kept on rising since October and maintain above 70% on average, comparing to the 30% in July 2015.
“Last time I see 90% is around June 2016 when price climbed over 5,000 yuan.”
Pyramid Schemes
So where is money comes from? A latest topic on 8btc may tell the truth:
The thread claims that the MMM are the key forces for driving the price up, with screenshots including:
The thread is also confirmed by Chandler Guo. He tells 8btc:
Yes, I am aware that there are lots of pyramid scheme are adopting Bitcoin.
He mentioned a few and I would like to keep them in private. At last, he warns:
These are all pyramid schemes. We should alert the elderly!
Learn cryptocurrency and digital assets since 2013 and co-founder of 8btc in 2014. Co-author of 2014-2015 Digital Currency Development Report(2015) and first author of Investment Guidelines To Blockchain Digital Currency (Published in June 2017 ISBN:9787300239286).
COMMENTS(36)
The $14 billion marketcap of Bitcoin is a good story for mainstream media. And the Chinese media did release stories as expected. But is the market really driven by Chinese capital market demand or it is just another bubble? You will see the real driving force at the end of this story.http://news.8btc.com/chinese-factors-behind-the-14-billion-marketcap-of-bitcoin
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 09:58:16 AM
You will see the real driving force at the end of this story.
End of the story states that…Quote
Pyramid SchemesSo where is money comes from? A latest topic on 8btc may tell the truth:The thread claims that the MMM are the key forces for driving the price up
So, do u mean, Bitcoin has reached 900 USD because of MMM?
Your images are broken. For example…i.e. http://news.8btc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/145229znhjdnnydo7ibr7y.jpg
Quote from: newIndia on December 23, 2016, 10:04:38 AM
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 09:58:16 AM
You will see the real driving force at the end of this story.
End of the story states that…Quote
Pyramid SchemesSo where is money comes from? A latest topic on 8btc may tell the truth:The thread claims that the MMM are the key forces for driving the price up
So, do u mean, Bitcoin has reached 900 USD because of MMM?
Apparently the general public still hates bitcoin.
Do you people think this ll continue going up? Does BTC s got any potential to reach $1k?
I don’t think it’s bubble. From the most beginning Chinese pay more attention to bitcoin that in remain world. And bitcoin developed there faster. I think they have their special culture about it and it’s just can not be a fail.
Quote from: CoinLearn on December 23, 2016, 10:05:55 AM
Your images are broken. For example…i.e. http://news.8btc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/145229znhjdnnydo7ibr7y.jpg
That’s the source of the pic3M才是本次行情的幕后推动，币圈不要YY了http://8btc.com/thread-44018-1-1.html
Quote from: crazyivan on December 23, 2016, 10:13:14 AM
Do you people think this ll continue going up? Does BTC s got any potential to reach $1k?
Likely, but 6400 is already a record high.
Quote from: newIndia on December 23, 2016, 10:04:38 AM
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 09:58:16 AM
You will see the real driving force at the end of this story.
End of the story states that…Quote
Pyramid SchemesSo where is money comes from? A latest topic on 8btc may tell the truth:The thread claims that the MMM are the key forces for driving the price up
So, do u mean, Bitcoin has reached 900 USD because of MMM?
Latest surge in litecoin price where litecoin went up to $8 was because of some pyramid scheme in China, I wouldn’t be surprised if something similar is helping bitcoin price right now.
So price is going up because ppl that are organizing pyramid schemes are using it? Cmon now…how large should those be to be main driving force?
i think it will still go up until the first of january and it will reach it 1000 k dollars in no time .and i think the market of bitcoins is growing day by day. and it will be the currency of china.
I hope it’s not a bubble, I’ve sold a few coins in this run but I am HODLING the majority of my stash for the long term. It’d be deflating to see us reach $1000+ only for the price to plummet several hundred dollars after.
Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on December 23, 2016, 10:54:11 AM
I hope it’s not a bubble, I’ve sold a few coins in this run but I am HODLING the majority of my stash for the long term. It’d be deflating to see us reach $1000+ only for the price to plummet several hundred dollars after.
I’m also hoping it’s not a bubble either,some of the comments from this events dwells in the negative,like Quote
Its the Chinese that pump the price. Part of real estate funds are injected into Bitcoin and another function of bitcoin is to transfer money. Bitcoin is perfect for money laundering..I want Bitcoin price to rise naturally not because Chinese are pumping it,it could give bitcoin a bad impression,let’s see what will happen in the coming weeks.
Quote from: crazyivan on December 23, 2016, 10:13:14 AM
Do you people think this ll continue going up? Does BTC s got any potential to reach $1k?
It can reach $1000, but it will take several months.
Quote from: Genamant on December 23, 2016, 11:56:55 AM
Quote from: crazyivan on December 23, 2016, 10:13:14 AM
Do you people think this ll continue going up? Does BTC s got any potential to reach $1k?
It can reach $1000, but it will take several months.
I think it can get to even 2000$ by the end of 2017
Quote from: pedrog on December 23, 2016, 10:34:05 AM
Quote from: newIndia on December 23, 2016, 10:04:38 AM
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 09:58:16 AM
You will see the real driving force at the end of this story.
End of the story states that…Quote
Pyramid SchemesSo where is money comes from? A latest topic on 8btc may tell the truth:The thread claims that the MMM are the key forces for driving the price up
So, do u mean, Bitcoin has reached 900 USD because of MMM?
Latest surge in litecoin price where litecoin went up to $8 was because of some pyramid scheme in China, I wouldn’t be surprised if something similar is helping bitcoin price right now.
Very observant of you. But litecoin rise has been weiredly predicted by some threads on 8btc.与其追涨比特币，不如加仓莱特币http://8btc.com/thread-43937-1-1.html(出处: 巴比特论坛)
Quote from: crazyivan on December 23, 2016, 10:13:14 AM
Do you people think this ll continue going up? Does BTC s got any potential to reach $1k?
Hell yes it’s got that potential and more. Look where we’re at ($900). It’s not going to take much more positive sentiment to drive us above 1K and beyond. Of course I say this with absolutely no evidence, but I think the momentum speaks, loudly, for itself. And if China is behind it, so be it. Everybody needs to pile in like one of those clown cars.
It is not just another bubble, the Bitcoin price is very, very undervalued, and what we are seeing is just the pressure getting out, I do believe a strong manipulation was needed to keep the price below current.. not otherwise.China can may have around 2 million bitcoins now..more countries will follow..
Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on December 23, 2016, 10:54:11 AM
I hope it’s not a bubble, I’ve sold a few coins in this run but I am HODLING the majority of my stash for the long term. It’d be deflating to see us reach $1000+ only for the price to plummet several hundred dollars after.
Don’t worry, if the price dips there is enough hungry hounds to buy it straight back up again…. Exponentially larger market for btc now than back in 2013
Quote from: pedrog on December 23, 2016, 10:34:05 AM
Quote from: newIndia on December 23, 2016, 10:04:38 AM
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 09:58:16 AM
You will see the real driving force at the end of this story.
End of the story states that…Quote
Pyramid SchemesSo where is money comes from? A latest topic on 8btc may tell the truth:The thread claims that the MMM are the key forces for driving the price up
So, do u mean, Bitcoin has reached 900 USD because of MMM?
Latest surge in litecoin price where litecoin went up to $8 was because of some pyramid scheme in China, I wouldn’t be surprised if something similar is helping bitcoin price right now.
don’t compare litecoin with bitcoin. litecoin daily trading volume is not at all comparable with bitcoin. and since the price is that much lower and market smaller, it can be manipulated so much easier. and the rise was full pump and doing the same thing in bitcoin takes a lot more than that.
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 10:11:56 AM
Apparently the general public still hates bitcoin.
I don’t think that is the case. A large majority of the general public has never heard about the Bitcoin. Even among those who have heard about the coins, the opinion is mixed. Some people hate it, as Bitcoins are frequently used for ransomware payments and darkmarket purchases. But some others like it, for advantages such as protection against inflation, and anonymity.
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 09:58:16 AM
The $14 billion marketcap of Bitcoin is a good story for mainstream media. And the Chinese media did release stories as expected. But is the market really driven by Chinese capital market demand or it is just another bubble? You will see the real driving force at the end of this story.http://news.8btc.com/chinese-factors-behind-the-14-billion-marketcap-of-bitcoin
I think BTC value is real not bubble once traditional currency is reducing value itself due to inflation or weak internal economy.so to prevent currency reduction, They must keep Bitcoins now.
Quote from: shecarlin on December 26, 2016, 06:19:20 AM
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 09:58:16 AM
The $14 billion marketcap of Bitcoin is a good story for mainstream media. And the Chinese media did release stories as expected. But is the market really driven by Chinese capital market demand or it is just another bubble? You will see the real driving force at the end of this story.http://news.8btc.com/chinese-factors-behind-the-14-billion-marketcap-of-bitcoin
I think BTC value is real not bubble once traditional currency is reducing value itself due to inflation or weak internal economy.so to prevent currency reduction, They must keep Bitcoins now.
That’s what a economy man would do in his best judgement.
Quote from: bryant.coleman on December 26, 2016, 06:10:47 AM
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 10:11:56 AM
Apparently the general public still hates bitcoin.
I don’t think that is the case. A large majority of the general public has never heard about the Bitcoin. Even among those who have heard about the coins, the opinion is mixed. Some people hate it, as Bitcoins are frequently used for ransomware payments and darkmarket purchases. But some others like it, for advantages such as protection against inflation, and anonymity.
Good point. I don’t think this is what’s happening either. Most of the general public are still in the dark on Bitcoin. It’s that like with all things digital catchy headlines about cases of illegal use of bitcoins draw more attention and tend to stick to their minds for a long time.
Quote from: ljudotina on December 23, 2016, 10:40:03 AM
So price is going up because ppl that are organizing pyramid schemes are using it? Cmon now…how large should those be to be main driving force?
I find that hard to believe either. Yet bitcoin’s liquidity is inherently low, so any major spike in demand may cause a rally like this. According to bitcoin market analysts, it would take a one-time purchase of just $1M to $1.5M to move the price.
Quote from: jondeen707 on December 27, 2016, 10:17:43 AM
Quote from: ljudotina on December 23, 2016, 10:40:03 AM
So price is going up because ppl that are organizing pyramid schemes are using it? Cmon now…how large should those be to be main driving force?
I find that hard to believe either. Yet bitcoin’s liquidity is inherently low, so any major spike in demand may cause a rally like this. According to bitcoin market analysts, it would take a one-time purchase of just $1M to $1.5M to move the price.
It is true because bitcoin price is volatile. Just like what happening to the price right now. It keeps pump/dump. 1m$ bulk purchase of btc is really happening right now. Just watch the trading history on polo
Quote from: bryant.coleman on December 26, 2016, 06:10:47 AM
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 10:11:56 AM
Apparently the general public still hates bitcoin.
I don’t think that is the case. A large majority of the general public has never heard about the Bitcoin. Even among those who have heard about the coins, the opinion is mixed. Some people hate it, as Bitcoins are frequently used for ransomware payments and darkmarket purchases. But some others like it, for advantages such as protection against inflation, and anonymity.
Who is general public ? Obviously we are. But we are all love it.This 14 billion cap is not built by dev alone so that we can say public is not contributing in this. Even 90% of people are not aware of bitcoin yet, bitcoin’s growth is already in rapid pace. So, when it goes down to 50% we may not just imagine the market cap.
Chinese are playing a key role in keeping bitcoin at high price. They account a large volume in trading as well as mining bitcoin. No doubts about that. I think in 20 years you will see Indians coming up to the same level as Chinese. I am saying this because India is 20 years behind Chinese and bitcoin is gaining traction slowly in India.
Quote from: bryant.coleman on December 26, 2016, 06:10:47 AM
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 10:11:56 AM
Apparently the general public still hates bitcoin.
I don’t think that is the case. A large majority of the general public has never heard about the Bitcoin. Even among those who have heard about the coins, the opinion is mixed. Some people hate it, as Bitcoins are frequently used for ransomware payments and darkmarket purchases. But some others like it, for advantages such as protection against inflation, and anonymity.
That is right. When I told my friends about the bitcoin, they think it is a Ponzi.
I was just thinking that if word has spread enough that the everyday Chinese individual “investor” (a broad term to include investors, gamblers, and the types to fall prey to pyramid schemes) is jumping in, this could get very weird. Definitely good for anyone already invested in the short to medium term, but who knows after that.
Just wait until the smell hits the big dragon’s nose.
So everyone is waiting for the Chinese bubble to burst?
Well, it is what bubbles do.
But if you’re in it for the long haul, you avoid the bursts if you can, ready to get back in, knowing the train will keep on going. But it’s much easier (and usually wiser) to just bite the bullet and hold on.
And I don’t know about everyone else, but as someone who has watched Chinese markets (and the Chinese government intervene), I can say it’s something bitcoin investors will want to be aware of.
Then keep on watching us and thank for sharing your opinion.
Quote from: upsidedown75 on December 27, 2016, 02:14:18 PM
Quote from: bryant.coleman on December 26, 2016, 06:10:47 AM
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 10:11:56 AM
Apparently the general public still hates bitcoin.
I don’t think that is the case. A large majority of the general public has never heard about the Bitcoin. Even among those who have heard about the coins, the opinion is mixed. Some people hate it, as Bitcoins are frequently used for ransomware payments and darkmarket purchases. But some others like it, for advantages such as protection against inflation, and anonymity.
Who is general public ? Obviously we are. But we are all love it.This 14 billion cap is not built by dev alone so that we can say public is not contributing in this. Even 90% of people are not aware of bitcoin yet, bitcoin’s growth is already in rapid pace. So, when it goes down to 50% we may not just imagine the market cap.
I think that is not right. General people who are brain washed by banking institutions dislike bitcoin. But this is changing when more and more people realize the power, freedom and advantage bitcoin offers.
Quote from: virasog on January 01, 2017, 01:33:26 PM
Quote from: upsidedown75 on December 27, 2016, 02:14:18 PM
Quote from: bryant.coleman on December 26, 2016, 06:10:47 AM
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 10:11:56 AM
Apparently the general public still hates bitcoin.
I don’t think that is the case. A large majority of the general public has never heard about the Bitcoin. Even among those who have heard about the coins, the opinion is mixed. Some people hate it, as Bitcoins are frequently used for ransomware payments and darkmarket purchases. But some others like it, for advantages such as protection against inflation, and anonymity.
Who is general public ? Obviously we are. But we are all love it.This 14 billion cap is not built by dev alone so that we can say public is not contributing in this. Even 90% of people are not aware of bitcoin yet, bitcoin’s growth is already in rapid pace. So, when it goes down to 50% we may not just imagine the market cap.
I think that is not right. General people who are brain washed by banking institutions dislike bitcoin. But this is changing when more and more people realize the power, freedom and advantage bitcoin offers.
The change is slow, but it is changing.
Quote from: virasog on January 01, 2017, 01:33:26 PM
Quote from: upsidedown75 on December 27, 2016, 02:14:18 PM
Quote from: bryant.coleman on December 26, 2016, 06:10:47 AM
Quote from: hl5460 on December 23, 2016, 10:11:56 AM
Apparently the general public still hates bitcoin.
I don’t think that is the case. A large majority of the general public has never heard about the Bitcoin. Even among those who have heard about the coins, the opinion is mixed. Some people hate it, as Bitcoins are frequently used for ransomware payments and darkmarket purchases. But some others like it, for advantages such as protection against inflation, and anonymity.
Who is general public ? Obviously we are. But we are all love it.This 14 billion cap is not built by dev alone so that we can say public is not contributing in this. Even 90% of people are not aware of bitcoin yet, bitcoin’s growth is already in rapid pace. So, when it goes down to 50% we may not just imagine the market cap.
I think that is not right. General people who are brain washed by banking institutions dislike bitcoin. But this is changing when more and more people realize the power, freedom and advantage bitcoin offers.
Yes, bitcoin is widely used by hackers and malware developers, but that is not the fault of bitcoin. Fiat cash is used for drugs, crime, terrorism and bad things, I can’t find anyone blaming fiat cash as the reason for it!
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