Bull Run: Keep Expectations low to Avoid Disappointment
The next crypto bull run, if it ever comes again and soonest, will likely happen when least expected, just as the spike seen in the past 24 hours. The unexpected Tether sell-off on Oct. 15 pushed Bitcoin’s price by about 12% from $6300 to $7200, supporting the view that a crypto bull market cannot be tied to a fixed date or duration.
The optimism shared by many that a bull market comes around next month is good. However, making it seem like a definitive occurrence upon which investment advice is made shows it is getting out of hands. The crypto market in itself is unpredictable. There is a need to reiterate that anything can happen between now and November when the Bakkt platform, which is expected to contribute to price rise, is supposed to be launched.
Bakkt launch will have an impact on the market if rolled out in the first week of November but it may not happen as scheduled or it may start off smaller than anticipated. These factors can push the possibility of a real bull market until maybe next February, when the final deadline for Van Eck SolidX ETF application is made. Or something else could come up in between. The main cachet for the Bakkt platform would be its ability to physically buy Bitcoin. It may help the market see a pump in short term but may not have enough momentum to sustain the bullish trend for a longer period.
Additionally, several positive news or industry-related events this year have not really had much impact. The bull run was first suggested to happen after the tax period, then by summer demand. But none served as the catalyst Bitcoin needed to rise. However, Bakkt is more than just any news. It can change the market outlook since it offers a direct gateway for big investment into cryptocurrencies. It is a major catalyst that could send bitcoin price higher. It could also be considered bigger than a Bitcoin ETF the industry also look forward to.
What’s clear is that the market is waiting for its launch as well as ErisX’s – a regulated derivatives exchange and clearing platform that will provide its clients with trading access to digital currencies like in traditional capital markets. What should be more of interest now are questions about how much demand there would be and at what price once the platform is available. The right answers to these questions would help determine Bitcoin’s price direction as from next month.