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Blockchain Hopeful for Global Relevance in Next Five Years

Though news coming out of China as “the biggest buyer of everything” worries some commodity leaders, they suggest at least a five-year outlook for blockchain technology to have a meaningful effect on business operations globally.

In a recent roundtable discussion put together by Global Trade Review for its annual commodity finance table, the leaders talked about, among other things, how the geopolitical scene is having an impact on global growth – it was before the Corona virus hit China disrupting the usual flow of business activities.

“Three years ago, people would have predicted by now that 30 or 40% of global trade would be done on blockchain,” says Jasper van Schaik, the global head of trade and commodity finance, Rabobank, while touching on where technology can make a difference in business as they all agree that digital transformation is needed and is on its way in. “However, people always overestimate what is possible in the short run, and underestimate what is possible in the longer run. We are strong believers that blockchain will become very relevant in our world in the coming three to five years.”

Their view is now seemingly backed by several reports which stress the importance of the next five years to the future of blockchain technology as various organisations in different sectors embrace its use.

Gartner just predicted that by 2023, organizations using blockchain smart contracts will increase overall data quality by 50% though their data availability may reduce by 30%. The research and advisory company’s suggests that organizations that adopt blockchain smart contracts stand to benefit from the associated increase in data quality which will increase by 50% by 2023. It recommends to industry leaders to “pilot blockchain smart contracts now” to automate a simple business process such as non-sensitive data distribution.

HTF MI, in evaluating the global blockchain identity management market between 2018 and 2022, including its opportunities and risk side analysis, notes in its latest study that the market is to see a growth with projected increase in cybersecurity regulations at a CAGR of 80.85% by 2022 though its year on year growth rate will gradually decrease over the next few years.

For the global blockchain telecom market, Orbis Research expects growth at a CAGR of 28.3% over 2019 and 2024 particularly due to increasing adoption of 5G as a catalyst for blockchain implementation. It views that blockchain can help detect and prevent telecom fraud which Europol’s European Cybercrime Centre and Trend Micro say now costs US$32.7 bln annually to the world.

The growing prominence in mobile payments in India and China got the Asia-Pacific region tipped to see the highest growth in the telecom sector as embracing blockchain, the report states, adding that telcos like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom that have joined the CAICT’s Trusted Blockchain Initiative are expected to focus on blockchain-based apps that relate to IoT data sharing and customer identity verification.

“The main reason why we can’t say that blockchain has taken off yet is not because blockchain is not working,” the global head of commodity trade finance at Citi, Kris Van Broekhoven, said during the roundtable. “It’s because it takes such a long time to actually get something in production and then give people the time to test it and experience it.”

It should be noted that top professional networking site, LinkedIn, recently published that blockchain development tops the list of most in-demand hard skills for 2020 globally citing that blockchain has become “a line of business” for the corporate world and now being used across industries like shipping, healthcare, from farming and food safety to entertainment and gaming.

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