Bitcoin Price to $143,000; Ethereum, BCH to Lose Market – New Research
Total crypto market cap could reach $3.6 tln over the next ten years, a new report by independent equity research provider, Satis Group, and published by Bloomberg has shown. By the tenth year, it says the projected price of Bitcoin – currently at ~$7000 – would be at a 1941% rise ($143,900) while Ethereum will merely rise by 101% ($588) and Bitcoin Cash drop by -68% ($180).
Though it is not clear what would be the percentage of Bitcoin’s dominance by then, the report’s analyst, Sherwin Dowlat, notes that the largest upside seen in the entire cryptoasset market would be in the privacy sector. This will likely make the network effects seen from the likes of Bitcoin earlier on be repeated within dominant coins since they target the same large and lower velocity store of value market as Bitcoin and present a much deeper value proposition within those markets.
With law enforcement making efforts to track transactions on public networks like Bitcoin – Russia and Japan are already seeking ways to track crypto transactions – the use cases in the privacy markets are likely to stick, the report says.
Using a 10-year model for use cases most relevant to the strengths of particular networks, the author estimates the size of the economy supported by cryptoassets and estimated the percentage of the economy’s value that will be traded using cryptocurrencies vs. fiat currencies. The market is then divided by the coin’s/token’s velocity to arrive at the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies.
Its forecasted growth of targeted markets and defined share within each peer group shows that the largest opportunity for cryptoassets will be in store of value markets with substantial upside for Monero and Bitcoin while networks that “have cultivated relatively organic growth and community” e.g. Litecoin continue to see upside within currency networks.
It expects meaningful downside from networks that “have inherited brand recognition and potentially short-lived adoption during hiccups from their fork-parent e.g. Bitcoin Cash” and “very little value in networks that are misleadingly marketed and not even required for use within their own network e.g. Ripple.”
Bitcoin and its network effect will likely dominate end-market share within currencies and the overall cryptoasset market due to various reasons: increasing liquidity and purchasing avenues; increasing brand recognition; its position as the default base-pair within the crypto markets; declining relative volatility; relative lack of attack
vectors; network capacity alleviation through the maturity of layer-2 solutions; and an increasingly high attack and overthrow cost.
The report forecasts that Ethereum will lose share by 2028 despite its strong community due to minor flaws in design and governance resulting in contention. Though still believed to be undervalued relative to the share of the cryptoasset market’s total addressable market it targets because of the reputation and liquidity it has built, newer entrants emerging at the expense of Ethereum are expected in the market.
Added to speculation and skew market valuations, the fundamental value of these new platforms may increase substantially once they have established a community and dependency around them. Within the ten years, there may not be any competitor that will match Ethereum’s growth level as its ecosystem has seen in value expansion over the past two years.